The Virus That Causes Mpox Keeps Getting Better at Spreading in People
November 1, 2024
Genome analysis reveals that mpox clade Ia, previously known for animal-to-human transmission in Central Africa, has evolved for sustained human-to-human spread, possibly through sexual contact. The outbreak, centered in Kinshasa, DRC, adds to mounting concerns about viral evolution. This development mirrors the pattern of clade II's evolution, which led to the 2022 global outbreak infecting over 90,000 people. Dr. Placide Mbala, leading the research in Kinshasa, notes this follows expected viral evolution patterns seen in Ebola and COVID, though the extent of adaptation remains uncertain. The preliminary findings await peer review.
Recent genomic analysis has revealed concerning developments in the evolution of mpox virus, particularly regarding its transmission patterns in Central Africa.
Key Findings:
1. New Transmission Pattern:
- Clade Ia showing sustained human-to-human spread
- Previously known for animal-to-human transmission
- Possible sexual transmission route identified
- Centered in Kinshasa, DRC
- Contributing to regional infection surge
2. Scientific Context:
- Genomic analysis reveals key mutations
- Preliminary results posted October 22
- Awaiting peer review
- Posted on Virological forum
- Ongoing data collection and analysis
3. Viral Variants Overview:
- Four known clades: Ia, Ib, IIa, and IIb
- Historical geographic distribution:
* Clade I: Central Africa focus
* Clade II: West Africa presence
- Pattern similar to Nigerian outbreak evolution
4. Historical Perspective:
- Mid-2010s Nigeria outbreak as precedent
- 2022 global outbreak from clade IIb
- Over 90,000 people infected globally
- Continues to spread today
5. Expert Assessment:
Dr. Placide Mbala emphasizes this evolution follows patterns seen in other viruses like Ebola and COVID, while highlighting uncertainties about the extent of potential adaptations.
This development represents a significant shift in understanding mpox transmission and poses new challenges for disease control efforts in Central Africa.