Mpox Spread in Congo May Be Slowing
November 5, 2024
Congo's mpox outbreak shows signs of stabilizing, with weekly cases dropping from 400 to 200-300. However, with only 40-50% of suspected cases tested and just 50,000 people vaccinated in a population of 110 million, concerns persist. The Africa CDC estimates Congo needs 3 million vaccines, with another 7 million for the rest of Africa. The new strain shows a higher 3% death rate compared to 0.2% in 2022. While Western partners have promised 380,000 doses, experts warn that inadequate vaccination could lead to future outbreaks, especially given the virus's evolution toward easier human transmission through sexual contact.
Early indicators suggest Congo's mpox outbreak might be stabilizing, though significant challenges remain in vaccination coverage and containment efforts.
Current Situation:
1. Case Trends:
- Weekly cases down to 200-300 from 400 in July
- Only 40-50% of suspected cases tested
- Continued spread in other African regions
- Higher 3% death rate versus 0.2% in 2022 outbreak
2. Vaccination Challenges:
- Only 50,000 people vaccinated out of 110 million population
- Africa CDC estimates need for:
* 3 million vaccines for Congo
* 7 million for rest of Africa
- 380,000 doses promised by Western partners
- Less than half of high-risk population vaccinated
3. International Response:
- UNICEF leading vaccination campaign
- Western partners providing support
- WHO and partners allocated 900,000 vaccines to nine countries
- First vaccine batches arrived in September
4. Expert Concerns:
- Risk of future significant outbreaks
- New transmission patterns via sexual contact
- Continued animal-to-human spillover
- Virus mutations enabling easier spread
- Limited pediatric vaccine availability
5. Future Implications:
- CDC warning about strain importation
- Historical context of 2017 Nigerian outbreak leading to global spread
- Need for comprehensive vaccination strategy
- Importance of sustained international support
Experts emphasize the critical need for expanded vaccination coverage to prevent future outbreaks, particularly given the virus's evolution and new transmission patterns.