Mpox outbreak could start plateauing next year, Africa CDC says
November 28, 2024
Mpox cases in Africa are expected to rise over the next four weeks before stabilizing early next year, according to the Africa CDC. With over 59,000 cases and 1,164 deaths reported across 20 African countries in 2024, the outbreak remains a public health emergency. The World Health Organization attributes the crisis to operational challenges and insufficient outbreak surveillance. Efforts to curb the spread include deploying community health workers and epidemiologists for contact tracing and infection prevention. Africa CDC officials express hope that current investments will lead to a plateau in cases by early 2024, followed by a gradual decline.
The Africa CDC forecasts that mpox cases will rise in the coming weeks before showing signs of stabilization early next year. Mpox, a viral infection spread through close contact, has resulted in over 59,000 reported cases and 1,164 deaths across 20 African countries this year. Declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in August, the outbreak continues to spread, particularly in regions surrounding the Democratic Republic of Congo, the epicenter of the crisis.
Ngashi Ngongo of Africa CDC emphasized the critical need for strengthened outbreak surveillance during a recent briefing. Current efforts include deploying community health workers, epidemiologists, and infection prevention specialists to areas with confirmed cases. However, operational challenges, including insufficient contact tracing and surveillance systems, have hindered response efforts. These gaps were highlighted by the WHO, which noted that the outbreak still constitutes an international public health emergency.
Africa CDC officials remain optimistic about the impact of intensified response measures, anticipating a plateau in new cases within four weeks and a potential decline by the end of the first quarter of 2024. This hopeful outlook depends on the continued investment in containment efforts, including community outreach and infection control.
Mpox, which causes flu-like symptoms and lesions, is typically mild but can be fatal in severe cases. The WHO has stressed the importance of maintaining a cohesive international response to address the ongoing challenges. As the outbreak persists, the need for robust surveillance, coordinated efforts across countries, and sustained investments in public health infrastructure is paramount.
By reinforcing these strategies, health authorities aim to bend the curve of the outbreak and mitigate its devastating impact, offering a path toward eventual containment of mpox across Africa and beyond.