MPOX TRACKER

Guinea’s rapidly escalating mpox outbreak is a stark warning that the crisis in West Africa is far from over. In just five weeks, Guinea has gone from detecting its first mpox case to accounting for 20% of the continent’s weekly totals. With cases now concentrated in Conakry, Faranah, and Kindia—and rising among men—officials are scrambling to scale up contact tracing and isolation. The trend eerily resembles Sierra Leone’s trajectory, which saw a sharp peak earlier this year.

While encouraging declines have been noted in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and Sierra Leone, multiple new and concerning hotspots are emerging. Kenya is seeing spread beyond initial coastal areas; Togo’s increase, though small, is worrisome given its role as a transit hub; and Mozambique—where 13 cases have now been confirmed—is closely monitoring potential cross-border transmission. The clade involved in Mozambique’s outbreak remains unknown, a further reminder of surveillance gaps.

Compounding these challenges is a deepening vaccine crisis. The Africa CDC reports that all earlier deliveries have been distributed, and though Bavarian Nordic holds 800,000 doses, there’s no funding to procure or deploy them. Africa CDC estimates 3.4 million doses are currently needed, and countries like Liberia and Mozambique—still in early outbreak stages—are pleading for access. Without intervention, today’s small clusters could become tomorrow’s regional outbreaks.

Fractional dosing strategies are now being considered to stretch limited supplies. But it shouldn’t have come to this. Budget cuts and a lack of international coordination are creating a dangerous vacuum—just as viral transmission accelerates in vulnerable regions. The global community cannot afford to look away. If equity in access, funding, and logistics isn’t prioritized, the window to contain mpox across Africa may soon close.